CALIFORNIA LEGAL MARIJUANA 2018 - LOOKING AT $5+ BILLION
California Marijuana - #1 Cash Crop 2018
"Why do you want the criminals to make all the money off [marijuana] when it’s proven that it won’t kill you unless you let a bale of it fall on you?" - Willie Nelson
Editor: Because criminal interests made the law. Duh.
Let's start with some real numbers, cash in the bank style numbers that come out of Colorado, and use these figures to guestimate California totals. Then we'll compare our estimates with other somewhat dodgy sources, university, media, government and whatnot.
Projections for the total revenues of medical marijuana sales in California range from $ 5 to 8 billion per annum. We predict that in the not so distant future, total yearly marijuana receipts will exceed $10 billion, with $2 billion going into public coffers.
"Make the most you can of the hemp seed and sow it everywhere."- President George Washington
Editor: By definition, Federal forces are anti-constitutional, what are you going to do about it?
The Golden State is preparing to roll out its new medical and recreational laws on January 1, 2018. The University of California Agricultural Issues Center estimates that the aggregate 2016 annual sales of medical marijuana were $2 billion per year,and illegal sales was probably $5.7 billion, placing the total marijuana sales at somewhere around $8 billion plus or minus a few hundred million dollars.
The Cali Agri brain trust guesstimate that the recreational : illegal: medical split sits at about 60:30 :10 and they calculated the estimations with 0.1% accuracy, leaving one to very much doubt the legitimacy of their statisticians and numerical methods employed.
California State Treasurer John Chiang projected state’s legal cannabis sales will hit $7 billion annually.
MedMen estimated annual recreational annual sales will hit $8.38 billion.
ArcView and New Frontier estimated state’s cannabis sales to grow from $2.8 billion in 2016 to $6.5 billion by 2020.
THE RATIONAL NUMBERS
Our estimates are extrapolated from Colorado findings, where the population of 5.5 million consumes $130 M per month, or $1.5 billion per annum. The statistics say that has 5 times more "users" of marijuana 4.6 million for Cali and 0.9 million for Rocky Mountain High. So, our "sophisticated" analysis, we expect total Cali marijuana receipts to be 5x that of Colorado. Historically, it takes a couple of years for the illegal market to dry up and for consumers to purchase exclusively from legal outlets.
"The other day they asked me about mandatory drug testing. I said I believed in drug testing a long time ago. All through the sixties, I tested everything."- Bill Lee
So, as in Colorado, expect to see receipts to gradually ramp up over the next three years. Where consumption will plateau is complex. In places where marijuana is legal, young people's use goes down. Now, with that baby boomers finding out about medical marijuana in mass - the reefer madness has died on the vine ( soon Mr. Sessions will go as well), the demand for medical marijuana will do nothing but increase.
The Feds are not in any position to interrupt the legalization process by the states, as popular opinion is ramping up to the 70% plus a level of approval and a large percentage of 15% of the people that are not sure about weed are converting to yes in rapid fashion. The mandate is absolutely overwhelming.
"I think that marijuana shouldn't not only be legal, I think it should be a cottage industry. It would be wonderful for the state of Maine."- Stephen King
FEDS HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO CLEAN UP THEIR ACT
The Federal Government has lost all respect. Trump has given a sector of the population reason for hope.
We've always taken the position that Trump will legalize marijuana. We found that his words actually mean something, despite his somewhat nefarious and pragmatic ways at times. The business with Jeff Sessions revisiting the Failed War on Drugs is disturbing, but we think Sessions will be reined in, after the battle for power is complete.
"40 million Americans smoke marijuana. The only ones who didn’t like it were Jeff Sessions, Bill Clinton and Donald Trump."- Jay Leno and US
After all, we're talking about the prison system, elements of the shadow government, the entire pharmaceutical industry and so many pay for play bureaucrats that need to get on board with Trump. And, they're in the process of seeing the light, there will be no pay for play with the old Democrats, which are dying on the vine, as is the dinosaur mass media.
At the end of the day, expect the legal marijuana market in California to be in the vicinity of $10 billion per year and the national market to be about $100 billion within then next half-decade or so.
"I used to smoke marijuana. But I'll tell you something: I would only smoke it in the late evening. Oh, occasionally the early evening, but usually the late evening - or the mid-evening. Just the early evening, mid-evening and late evening. Occasionally, early afternoon, early midafternoon, or perhaps the late-mid-afternoon. Oh, sometimes the early-mid-late-early morning. . . . ...But never at dusk."- Steve Martin
420EvaluationsOnline: Until 2018, Californian citizens cannot purchase marijuana anywhere legally, nor are they allowed to transport cannabis into the State. Many users of marijuana are actually self medicating without the proper paperwork. This paperwork, a medical doctor's recommendation is required to purchase lab tested marijuana from dispensaries, delivery services, cannabis clubs, cooperatives and other MMJ points of access.
Also, in 2018, recreational marijuana will be taxed at 15% or more, while medical marijuana patients will save about $ 40-50 per ounce. Recreational users can ask a doctor if their conditions and symptoms qualify for a medical marijuana card - at no cost. The 420 evaluation process is completed 100% online - in minutes, and patients only pay a small fee once they are approved. With a doctor's recommendation, patients can get a Cannabis ID card or cultivation permit.
The state’s licensed cannabis shops captured nearly $132 million of recreational and medical cannabis sales in March, according to The Cannabist’s extrapolations of state sales tax numbers made public, the monthly sales revenue of $131.7 million set a record for Colorado’s relatively infant legal cannabis industry, besting the previous high of $127.8 million set last September, The Cannabist’s calculations showed ten consecutive month with sales topping $100 million.
"My fighting career has gotten in the way of my weed smoking."- MMA Legend Nick Diaz - busted for THC
% using cannabis in this year: 14.9%
Total marijuana users: 4,633,000 (the highest in the US)
% using illegal drugs excluding marijuana in the past month: 4.2% (3rd highest in the US)
Maximum fine for cannabis possession: $500
Nearly 15% of California residents 12 years and above said they've smoked cannabis in the past year, which makes the golden state the 12th highest in the country. California was the first state to legalize medical marijuana use. Prop. 215 was passed with 56% in favor in 1996 and this law erased criminal penalties for possession of the herbal-drug. Now, Californians are permitted to possess 8 ounces of usable marijuana, six mature plants, and 12 immature plants for medical use. With a licensed doctor’s recommendation, a patient may be treated with marijuana for AIDS, anorexia, arthritis, cancer, chronic pain, and seizures along with a range of conditions including epilepsy, MS, Fibromyalgia, and PTSD.
% using cannabis in the past year: 21.6%
Total marijuana users: 909,000 (13th highest in the US)
%. using illicit drugs other than marijuana in the past month: 4.4% (the highest in the US)
Maximum fine for cannabis possession: $100,000
It is no surprise that Colorado leads the nation in pot consumption, with 21.6% of residents twelve years old reporting using the herb-drug this year. Colorado was the first state in the US to legalize recreational marijuana, and it is one of only four states where recreational use is permitted. Colorado's path towards legalization started in 2005, when Denver erased penalties for marijuana possession.
Founder Mason Tvert, of a marijuana advocacy and nonprofit group, Safer Alternative For Enjoyable Recreation played a huge role in changing Colorado’s laws. This group focus is on clarifying the facts about marijuana, particularly concentrating the drug’s inherent safety, especially as compared to alcohol. According to the Marijuana Policy Project, Colorado generated $135 million in taxes and fees from all cannabis businesses in 2015.
“I have always loved marijuana. It has been a source of joy and comfort to me for many years. And I still think of it as a basic staple of life, along with beer and ice and grapefruits -and millions of Americans agree with me.”- Hunter S. Thompson, the Ultimate American
Nearly 70% of Americans live in states that have reformed their marijuana laws by allowing medical cannabis, imposing a fine, but no jail time for marijuana possession, or making cannabis legally available and regulated for adult's use.
A new Survey USA poll commissioned by Marijuana Majority found strong support for the cause for states mandate to legalize medical marijuana without federal interference. In the survey of 1,500 American adults, three out of four, a full 76% think that states should be able to implement their own marijuana laws regardless of federal prohibition.
"The legalization of marijuana is not a dangerous experiment—the prohibition is the experiment, and it has failed dramatically, with millions of victims all around the world."- Sebastian Marincolo